2019 Lok Sabha polls are the most unpredictable general elections, says Ruchir Sharma



Having travelled around the country this time, I can tell you that anyone who predicts a number with any certainty is a charlatan, The author and global investor, fresh from his 28th election trip, was making the case for the ongoing general elections being the most unpredictable anyone one percent to the left, one percent to the right, and the entire outcome is different, Sharma was summing up his main argument of the evening He said that while it may seem like the government in power has incredible advantages at its disposal, including a hold over various state institutions, the outcome of the elections remain far from obvious. Most people have this perception that the incumbent always comes back to power but most incumbents in India lose elections, This is such a reaffirming fact about the state of democracy in this country. It was so simple There is absolutely no debate about that. If you ask a Yadav, a Muslim or a Jatav, without a shadow of a doubt, the answer is Mahagathbandhan. They will say that we have been given toilets Ask the same question to a Yadav, Muslim or Jatav, and they will say the exact opposite. So what exactly is the truth? That Stating that no single factor can decidedly predict the outcome of these elections, Sharma used Priyanka Gandhi People are saying, I think if BJP ends up winning, they can virtually send a Thank You card to her. Because if by chance the Congress has a meaningful vote share increase, it will come from the Mahagatbandhan And if it doesnt happen, and Mahagathbandhan has the edge, how do you predict that? How do you know? Her entry may have helped Congress at the margin, but it could end up swinging the election the BJP It Sharma is the author of Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles (2012) and The Rise and Fall of Nations: Ten Rules of Change in the Post-Crisis World (2016). He writes regularly for The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs among other publications. He was one of Foreign Policy At the Express Adda, Sharma was in conversation with Anant Goenka, Executive Director of The Express Group, and Vandita Mishra, Nation Opinion Editor of The Indian Express. The Express Adda is a series of informal interactions organised by The Indian Express Group and features those at the centre of change. Past guests at the event include the Dalai Lama, economist and Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, filmmaker Karan Johar, Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, writer Amitav Ghosh, and oncologist and author Siddhartha Mukherjee.